The party has won the last five special House races, in districts ranging from suburban Illinois to northern Mississippi. Still, despite a gruesome national political environment, Democrats do have some hope. Republicans say they'll try to avoid that kind of mistake this time around, but it's too early to know what might happen. In New York's 23rd Congressional District, the approved Republican candidate was forced out of the race, a conservative Tea Party hero took over, and Democrat Bill Owens won a seat Republicans had controlled for more than a century. The last time party officials, instead of a primary election, determined the GOP nominee in a special House election, it turned into a debacle for the Republicans. One question looming is how local Tea Party groups will affect the race.
"That hurts." I asked her what kind of candidate she'd like to see Democrats nominate to try to hold the seat. "They start at the bottom of the totem pole - no power," says Helen Whiteford, Democratic Party chairwoman in Cambria County, Pa. No matter who wins the race, matching Murtha's clout will be impossible.
And all the federal projects he brought home surely didn't hurt, either. Murtha was tight with labor unions, but he also opposed abortion and gun control in what remains a culturally conservative district. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, and says Republicans generally have a slight advantage Democrats point to data showing they may have an edge, but the bottom line is, it'll be close. State laws for a special election give the power to pick candidates to party officials, without a primary, and county Democratic and Republican leaders will soon caucus to send up their choices to the state level.įiguring out how the race will play out isn't easy. "It's an uphill climb in a lot of ways," one national Republican says. That might give Democrats an edge, because a contested Senate primary between incumbent Arlen Specter and Rep. Most observers expect him to pick May 18, already the date for a statewide set of primaries, to save the cash-strapped state a little money. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, hasn't yet announced when the special election will be he has 10 days from Monday to make a decision. The GOP nomination will also be decided by party leaders. Republicans, who were already planning to challenge Murtha aggressively in the fall, have at least two candidates interested - local businessman Tim Burns, a political newcomer who a GOP aide says is enrolled already in the National Republican Congressional Committee's "Young Guns" recruiting program, and Bill Russell, who lost to Murtha by nearly 16 points in 2008, even as McCain won the district narrowly. In 2006, for instance, the retiring Martin Sabo's chief of staff, Mike Erlandson, lost the Democratic primary in Minnesota's Fifth District to Keith Ellison by ten points. Aides who have sought to replace their bosses in Congress have a spotty track record at best. Hugya might be handicapped by the low profile nature of his work on Murtha's staff. After losing to Tom Ridge in the race to succeeed Casey in 1994, Singel left the arena, ultimately settling into the lobbying world. But in the Democratic primary, Singel fell in one of the biggest surprises in Pennsylvania political history to Lynn Yeakel. Running with Robert Casey, he was elected lieutenant governor in 1986, the position from which he launched a U.S. Senate bid in 1992. The 56-year-old Singel, a one-time rising star who's been off the political stage for more than a decade, might be the most intriguing prospect. Party leaders - and not primary voters - will choose the Democratic candidate. John Wozniak, who has represented the area in Harrisburg since winning a state House seat in 1980 Murtha's chief of staff, John Hugya and possibly his son, John M. On the Democratic side, talk is focusing on former Lieutenant Gov. But each party is looking at a few names for an election where insiders - not primary voters - will pick the candidates.
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John Murtha's death Monday has Democrats and Republicans scrambling to find candidates for a special election in the ultimate swing House district - Pennsylvania's 12th, the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008.įuneral arrangements haven't been finalized yet for Murtha, the longest-serving House member in Pennsylvania history, and few political operatives would talk on the record about exactly how to replace him, out of respect for a local legend.
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